Positions

Commodities just spiked today on Iran tensions.

Ahmadinejad is good at poker. He's playing a dangerous game, but he's in a far better position than Saddam. In fact, the two men are in no way comparable. Saddam was a blustering imbecile; Ahmadinejad isn't. He knows a war in Iran will be a disaster for the United States, which is why it won't really happen.

If we do attack, I take back everything I said about The Great Decider's intelligence. I believe him to be an intelligent but evil man, not a bumbling idiot. If we attack Iran, he is a bumbling and evil man.

Anyway, I just pocketed my profits (using the same technique I use for gambling) and I'm sitting pretty on commodities.

Hell, they've offset my stock losses. I have positions in Coeure d'Alene mining and NVidia, and will be opening a position in AMD as soon as funds clear. Stocks make up about 15% of my portfolio, since commodities are still very bullish for at least the next 5-7 years, barring a breakout of World Peace and the crash of a solid-gold asteroid in the middle of Arizona.

CDE is my biggest loser right now, I'm down 20% but the company is solid despite the debt-load and marginal management. Its new mine just came online. With silver spiking, I expect to see good things from CDE in Q3 and Q4. CDE will produce about 5% of the world's silver within a few years. I bought in at $3.15, my target for sale is $6; I see it as a possibility within 6 months if silver remains strong.

NVDA, I bought when I saw the nice 33% drop in share price last week. It won't go much lower, based on my super-secret methods of stock divination. Bought in around $12, we're at $11 and change, and I expect to see it back around $15-18 range by the beginning of Q4.

AMD I'm considering as an offset to NVDA. Their ATI division just released a series of graphics cards that outdo NVDA (much to my chagrin.)

I am angry with AMD for acquiring ATI. It means fewer AMD/NVDA chipsets are available; I've been waiting 6 months for the 780A chipset to come out and it hasn't because AMD's new architecture is proving difficult for NVDA. So, as a PC consumer, I must either give up AMD or NVDA.

I've used AMD products since I was a kid. My parents' first system was a 286 with an AMD Math Co-Processor. I've been a loyal user for 17 or 18 years. Every computer I've owned runs an AMD processor. I've built AMDs for friends. I've been happy with their products. Investing my earnings from my first job into AMD stocks bought my first system, actually (and my first car.) Pretty good trades for a 17 year old working at a grocery store.

But I'm happier with NVDA than AMD. So my next system will be...Intel/NVDA. Gee, I feel like I'm writing slash-fic.

Alas, AMD, by acquiring that graphic-company from Canuckistan, you've lost a loyal supporter of 18 years. I'm selling out. But I'll buy your stock, whose eventual gains will offset the cost of my new INTEL and NVIDIA computer. Life is sweet.

I've been doing this investing thing for six years. A quarter of my life. I never intend to quit: making money from the strategic and tactical placement of pre-existing money is just too much fun. If I could do this full time, I'd never work another day of my life; which is to say, engaging in the ultimate form of capitalism is so second-nature to me that I don't consider it work, it's play.

By the by, I don't use margin. Because I'm not an idiot. I'm aggressive--with cash. I know I forfeit a lot of potential earnings by avoiding margin, but I also forfeit the risk of losing more than I actually have.

Nothing in the preceding post should be construed as investment advice. Ian owns, intends to own, or has owned the aforementioned companies and/or commodities. His views are, as such, biased. If you choose to mimic Ian's investment strategy, he is not at fault if you go bankrupt. You may in fact have no business investing if you are trying to get your investment information from blogs rather than reputable websites. If you are doing this, perhaps a better use of your money would be to take all of it and put it in the toilet and then flush it all down, down, down. The end result will likely be the same, and at least then you'll really get to watch it all go down the drain, rather than whine about a figurative drain into which you so expertly threw your money. So seriously, go consult a licensed financial adviser. After all, I might really be a Commie, trying to bring down the entire Bourgeois System with bad calls. Wouldn't that be a hoot? Financial. Adviser. Licensed. Go see one. Don't listen to me.